This summer is Scotland's 13th appearance at a World Cup or European Championships, yet to ever go beyond the group stages, a fact that is likely to remain true. Steve Clarke's team did beat Haiti 1-0 in Foxborough, but have subsequently been defeated 1-0 by Morocco and 3-0 by Brazil, with individual defensive errors costing them in the latter. Having finished third, that goal difference, ending on -3, could be what sees the Tartan Army heading for home.
World Cup 2026 third-placed team ranking: As of morning of June 26
Group | Team | Points (& GD) |
|---|---|---|
B | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 |
F | Sweden | 3 (0) |
L | Croatia | 3 (-1) |
A | Korea Republic | 3 (-1) |
J | Algeria | 3 (-2) |
D | Paraguay | 3 (-2) |
C | Scotland | 3 (-3) |
H | Cape Verde | 2 |
G | Belgium | 2 |
K | DR Congo | 1 |
E | Ecuador | 1 |
I | Senegal | 0 |
Not only their own defeat against the Seleção, Wednesday was a disastrous night for Scotland. Bosnia beating Qatar and South Africa winning against South Korea ensured that the third-place finisher in Group A and B both have a better record than Clarke's team.
Thus, the chances of Scotland ending up as one of eight the best-ranked teams seems slim. Opta give them a 24.9% chance, which seems high. Realistically, Scots need Germany to avoid defeat against Ecuador, Senegal not to beat Iraq, DR Congo not to beat Uzbekistan and Uruguay to lose to Spain. All possible, but unlikely.
So, in this format or similar, how common is it for a team with only three points and such a bad goal difference to progress?
Past tournaments: Third-place teams with 3 points and GD -3 or worse
Nation | Tournament | Goal difference | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
Thailand | W World Cup 2015 | -7 | Eliminated. |
Chile | W World Cup 2019 | -3 | Eliminated. |
Slovakia | Euro 2020 | -5 | Eliminated. |
Hungary | Euro 2024 | -3 | Eliminated. |
Costa Rica | Copa América 04 | -3 | Advanced. |
Colombia | Copa América 07 | -6 | Eliminated. |
Syria | Asian Cup 1996 | -3 | Eliminated. |
Indonesia | Asian Cup 2024 | -3 | Advanced. |
Vietnam | W Asian Cup 2026 | -4 | Eliminated. |
Kenya | AFCON 2019 | -4 | Eliminated. |
Côte d'Ivoire | AFCON 2024 | -3 | Advanced. |
Benin | AFCON 2026 | -3 | Advanced. |
Sudan | AFCON 2026 | -4 | Advanced. |
El Salvador | Gold Cup 2007 | -4 | Eliminated. |
Cuba | Gold Cup 2015 | -7 | Advanced. |
Looking around at previous tournaments featuring either 12 or 24 teams, thereby with the same format, but on a smaller scale, six of the 15 nations to end up on three points with a goal difference of -3 or worse have progressed. This is actually a 40% success rate, but in all of these occasions the teams in question only advanced because those eliminated picked up just two points.
At the Africa Cup of Nations of 2024, hosts Côte d'Ivoire lost their final group game 4-0 against Equatorial Guinea in Abidjan, so sacked manager Jean-Louis Gasset on the spot. Two days later, it transpired that les Éléphants had snuck into the knockout phase after all so, led by interim boss Emerse Faé, went on to win the entire competition. Fair to say, Scotland are unlikely to repeat that in the next few weeks.
At the Euros two summers ago, Hungary beat Scotland in Stuttgart, with Kevin Csoboth snatching victory in the tenth minute of added time. Marco Rossi's side were forced to wait to learn the fate, but it wasn't good news, eliminated a few days later due to their goal difference. Now, it is Scotland in that situation, continuing to train in Charlotte, despite knowing that, chances are, there won't be a game to prepare for.
Put succinctly, Scotland supporters should not yet give up hope, but their chances are slim.
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