Believe it or not, we are one week from the start of the Scottish Premiership season. With a mid-week battle against Rosenborg in the Champions League, one could be forgiven for giving that more attention.
However, as the season draws near, it is also a good time to figure out what the SPL season may look like.
To help us with that, we turn to one of our former writers and the leading SPL stats guy — Matt Rhein. He writes about Scottish footballing stats over at 90 Minute Cynic.
As we start to look at the SPL this week, we’re going to kick it off with the guy who analyzes the stats first. Enjoy our Q&A with Matt.
1) Brendan Rodgers has spoken of the goal to get beyond the group stage in the Champions League. Does he have the squad in place to do that?
Matt Rhein: As we saw last year, once you get into the group stages of the Champions League, there are no easy matches. This is especially true as a Pot 3 or 4 team, as Celtic would be if they are able to reach the group stages.
With that being said, I do not think Celtic addressed the areas necessary to further progress past the group stages if they get there. Even before the injury to Dedryck Boyata, the center backs were likely not of enough quality to earn qualification. Now, with Boyata out for some time, the issue becomes even greater. I like Jozo Simunovic as a defender but sometimes his distribution leaves something to be desired. Kristoffer Ajer seems to be very talented player with a bright future, but it is a lot to ask a 19 year old center back to lead a team to the knockout round of the Champions League. Erik Sviatchenko is often caught out of position and turns the ball over too many times if Celtic are to hope for Last 16 Champions League football. If center back is not addressed, I cannot envision Celtic going past the Group Stages.
With Paddy Roberts going back to Manchester City, I also think Celtic would benefit from adding another playmaker if they hope to move further in Europe than last season. James Forrest had a career year, averaging a very respectable 0.30 Goals per 90 minutes and 0.30 xG per 90 minutes(which was higher than Roberts in the SPFL) and 0.25 xA per 90 minutes in the SPFL. Celtic also added the player with the highest expected assists in the league that wasn’t on Celtic in Jonny Hayes, who had xA of 11.51 and 0.35 xA per 90 minutes. They will give Brendan Rodgers some options on the opposite wing of Scott Sinclair, but will they be enough to get past potential Champions League opponents? I am not sure.
2) With all the attention on Champions League qualifying it seems like the domestic season is an afterthought. Should fans take the SPL season more seriously or is there no real threat at the moment?
MR: Last season, Celtic had a 30 point gap in the table, a goal differential that was 42 better than second place Aberdeen, and scored 32 more goals than Aberdeen. When we look at the advanced stats, Celtic’s dominance was just as pronounced. Celtic had an expected goals for of 97.68, which was nearly 30 more than Aberdeen, they had by far the lowest xG conceded at 31.19, and had the best xG difference of 66.49 which was nearly 40 better than anyone else in the league. By all counts, Celtic completely dominated the league.
Last season, Rangers averaged the highest xG per game besides Celtic, but had the second worst conversion rate in the league. This was likely due to some combination of the ineptitude of their strike force and bad luck. It seems Pedro Caixinha believes the former is true, and brought in some replacements for the likes of Joe Garner and company. There is not much data out there on these players, but surely they cannot be as bad/unlucky as Rangers strike force last season. I would expect these replacements to help Rangers earn a few more points along the way than last season.
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Aberdeen lost previously mentioned Jonny Hayes, as well Niall McGinn to Korea of all places. Hayes and McGinn were 1 and 2 in terms of highest expected assists on the Dons, so they lost their two biggest play makers last season. McGinn also had the second highest expected goals for Aberdeen, with an xG of 8.90 and 0.29 xG per 90 minutes, so clearly he and Hayes were important to the Aberdeen attack. The Dons have replaced them with Greg Stewart from Birmingham last season and previously of Dundee, Gary Mackay-Stevens from Celtic, and Ryan Christie back on loan from Celtic.
Christie was absolutely phenomenal with Aberdeen last season on loan and has seemingly picked up where he left off in Aberdeen’s Europa League qualifiers. Neither Stewart nor GMS have had much playing time lately, but when they were at Dundee and Dundee United respectively, they showed they have the talent that earned their moves to bigger clubs. They will need to find that form again, and McGinn and Hayes have big shoes to fill.
Despite the above moves by Aberdeen and Rangers, there is not much out there to suggest that anyone will be able to knock Celtic off of their perch this season. In addition to those two clubs, Hearts seem to already be in self destruct mode with Ian Cathro after Robbie Nielsen left the club as seemingly the second best club in the league.
Since then, it’s been a rough ride for Hearts and Cathro, and the debate is now whether to cut bate with the young manager or give him time to implement his system with his players. Meanwhile on the other side of the capital, Neil Lennon is bringing experience to a talented core at Hibernian.
With the talented young players like John McGinn getting seasoned veterans along side him, you would expect the Hibees to do better than a typical newly promoted team, but you would not expect them to do much more than challenge for a European spot at best. I doubt we will see such dominance by Celtic again in the table, as no matter how talented a team is compared to the rest of the league, you need some good fortune to go undefeated. You can outplay a team and still get a bad bounce and drop points.
However, I would still expect Celtic to win the league comfortably by double digits in the neighborhood of 15-20 points.
3) Speaking of the SPL season…which team has impressed you most with its moves this offseason? Conversely, which team is in the most trouble in your mind?
MR: Rangers had clear needs in striker and centerback that needed addressed this summer and they did it. It remains to be seen if their signings, especially at striker will be enough, but they at least tried to address these needs.
Motherwell’s defense still could be an adventure in futility, but I was a big fan of them signing Alex Fisher from Inverness CT. Fisher only played about 800 minutes in the league, but still lead Caley in goals, had an G per 90 minutes of 0.40 and averaged an xG of 0.19 per shot meaning he was consistently getting quality shots. The only other strikers in the SPFL who averaged 0.40 xG per 90 and at least 0.18 per shot were Moussa Dembele and Kris Doolan of Partick Thistle who scored 14 goals last season.
Speaking of Thistle, after finishing top 6 last year, it seemed this year would be tougher with Hibs coming back into the top flight. However, they made some good moves to fight for the top 6 again. They lost young defender Liam Lindsay (who I would not have minded if Celtic would have bought, but I digress) but they replaced him with Niall Keown who was great with them on loan from Reading last season. They bought Keown outright from Reading, so the young 22 year old is now at Firhill going forward. They also got Blair Spittal from Dundee United. Spittal has shown glimpses of talent at United, but the Tangerines issues the last couple of years are well known. A change of scenery might be just what Spittal needs to unleash all that untapped talent.
4) Does having Hearts (last season) and Hibs (this season) make the SPL a better product to sell to the global market? Also, which of those clubs has a better season?
MR: While the last few Capital Derbies have not been the most entertaining football matches in the various cup ties, they always are passionate affairs worth viewing. I do not know if Edinburgh derbies are going to bring the worldwide masses in, but they should at least help bring in some attention in the UK.
Of course, if the SPFL made it easier to watch their matches, then perhaps some more interest could be generated. However, since there is not even a North American tv channel showing any SPFL matches, that seems like a pipe dream.
I think the squads of both Hearts and Hibs are pretty comparable in terms of talent. However, Ian Cathro is already under pressure at Tynecastle after Hearts were eliminated from the League Cup in the Group Stages. Furthermore, my projection system for the SPFL, B.U.R.L.E.Y., projects Hearts to most likely have only 4 points from their first 5 matches. Now, those are tough matches like Celtic Away, Rangers Away, Motherwell Away, and Aberdeen Home, but a rough start to those first matches might both be enough to push Ian Cathro out the door and make it so Hearts will not be able to catch their city rivals.
5) How does Celtic top last season?
MR: Brendan give out free money after every win? It will be tough to top last year domestically. An undefeated treble season is something as Celtic supporters we should cherish, as it is a once in a lifetime type event. Clearly, the only way to top last season is therefore further progress in Europe. I am afraid that without some further reinforcements mentioned before, that will be tough to do.
6) Predictions time…Winner of the league, who finishes in Europa spots, surprise team of the season and team heading for relegation…
MR: Celtic win the league comfortably but not quite the runaway it was last season. Rangers and Aberdeen finish second and third. Hearts come from behind to finish fourth ahead of Hibs on the last day and qualify for Europe after Celtic win the Scottish Cup. Hibs are fifth and Alex Fisher and Louis Moult score a combined 40 goals and lead Motherwell to sixth.
On the other end could be anyone’s guess. It was a dark day when the Patron Saint of Balding Poacher Strikers Liam Boyce was sold by Ross County to Burton Albion. He had to carry County for much of the season, so it could be tough for them without him. Lee McCulloch was a Rangers player that was easy to hate, but perhaps surprisingly, he seems to be a pretty progressive manager and has made some decent signings for Killie. Every year seems to be the year that St. Johnstone regress, and this might just be that year after losing Danny Swanson.
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However, I would expect Hamilton to be fighting relegation from the onset. They have only made two signings, one a keeper despite having one of the best keepers statistically in the league last season in Gary Woods and a 31 year old centerback. Hamilton nearly went down last season, only beating Dundee United in the playoff and I would guess they will be preparing for life in the Championship this time next year.