After being eliminated from Europe Wednesday, Celtic will now turn their focus back to domestic matters. On Sunday, the Bhoys have a chance to earn their first silverware of the year in the League Cup Final against Aberdeen.
Last season, Aberdeen were within touching distance of Celtic much of the year. The Dons were considered by many to be possible title contenders before Celtic pulled away and clinched their fifth title in a row.
While the Reds were seemingly able to give Celtic a scare all season, at this point last year Aberdeen was actually 3rd in the table. Hearts were 2nd on 29/11/15, 6 points behind Celtic, while Aberdeen were behind 8 points. Aberdeen have played fewer league matches than they had
at this point last season. We can compare the two sides by looking at their points per game, where the 2015/16 Dons side was averaging 2 points a game at this point while 16/17 is averaging 1.77 per game.
Aberdeen today sit in 2nd in the SPFL, but are considered by most to be much less of a title contender than last season. But what do the numbers say about Celtic’s League Cup Final opponent?
Looking at traditional stats, Aberdeen are ten points behind Celtic in the table. However, Aberdeen have a much better goal differential this season compared to last (+10 to +5).
Last year, Aberdeen averaged 1.63 goals per game. The Dons conceded 1.26 per game. Their goal scoring numbers this year are similar at 1.69 goals per game, but they have seemingly improved defensively, only allowing 0.92 goals per game.
When we look at advanced metrics for Aberdeen, we see a similar story. Aberdeen has an expected goals per game of 1.44 and an expected goals against of 1.15. This creates an xG difference of 0.29 per match. Last year, Aberdeen had similar numbers with an xG of 1.33 per game and an xGA of 1.01 for an xG difference of .21.
With the end of season here, here is the final @spfl Advanced Stats Table https://t.co/pdOEVeSH5N #SPFL #analytics pic.twitter.com/i8YVpesCWm
— Matt Rhein (@mattrhein86) May 17, 2016
If Aberdeen have similar traditional and advanced stats as last year, what has changed to make Aberdeen less of a title threat? In my opinion it is down to the play of two of the Dons most important players from a year ago.
Last season, Adam Rooney and Niall McGinn had career years for Aberdeen. Rooney knocked in 20 goals (0.83 goals per 90 minutes) in the league and had the fourth highest xG (10.41, 0.43 per 90 minutes) in the league, despite missing significant time due to injury. McGinn scored 10 goals (0.31 per 90) and contributed 10 assists, good for a G+A per 90 minutes of 0.63.
The last @spfl Expected Goals Leaderboard. https://t.co/jPXYJJefoR @Leighgriff09 is the #SPFL xG king this year. pic.twitter.com/DoQPaG4W1d
— Matt Rhein (@mattrhein86) May 17, 2016
This year, the Dons have not had the same contribution from
these two. Rooney has 4 goals (0.37 per 90 minutes) and an xG of 0.27 per 90 minutes. I suspected Adam Rooney might regress from last year after over-peforming his expected goals, but the Dons need more from the Irishman if they want to possibly challenge Celtic for the title and upset them Sunday in the League Cup Final.
Last year, I lobbied for the inclusion of Niall McGinn to be included in the the league’s team of the year. However, this year McGinn does not look like the player harshly left out of the team of the year squad.
End of year G+A per 90 leaders for @spfl https://t.co/8XqB6IxEiv No shock @Leighgriff09 was on top of this list. pic.twitter.com/D5drsxKbwN
— Matt Rhein (@mattrhein86) May 17, 2016
While McGinn is averaging roughly the same amount of goals per 90 minutes as last year, the Northern Irish winger has yet to contribute an assist in league play for Aberdeen. McGinn did it all last season, especially in Johnny Hayes’ absence. He will be another player that Aberdeen need to be playing well if they hope to leave Hampden with the League Cup Sunday.
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While Celtic has the statistical advantage over Aberdeen, cup tie football notoriously allows for variance from those stats. While a season provides a much bigger sample that allows us to use stats to handicap a team’s title chances, one match to decide who goes home with silverware allows for significantly more variance, randomness, and chance.
Aberdeen have very similar stats to last year. Keep in mind the Dons were able to beat Celtic twice last year with a very similar squad. Of course, Celtic is very much improved from last year, but if the likes of Adam Rooney and Niall McGinn rediscover their form from last year anything could happen. Celtic would be wise to take Aberdeen very seriously Sunday.