Celtic Stats Corner: Moult May Move Motherwell Mired in the Middle

Celtic are back in action on Saturday with a home match against Motherwell. In August, Celtic soundly defeated the Steelmen 5-0 in a League Cup match-up. Let us look at the stats for Motherwell since that cup-tie they would like to forget.

George Costanza would love Motherwell, as they find themselves “in the meaty part of the curve”, in 6th place. They have 9 points, the same as Ross County and Inverness. They are ahead

of those clubs due to goal differential. The Steelmen have scored 11 goals and conceded 12 thus far.

After starting last season firmly entrenched in the relegation fight, Mark McGhee was able to bring Motherwell from the bottom of the table to the top with a 5^th place finish. This season, McGhee has continued to lead them to the middle of the table.

Looking at Motherwell’s stats this year, mid-table seems about right for them. Motherwell are sixth in the league in expected goal difference, with an xG difference of -0.76 so far. On the attacking side of the ball, the Steelmen are slightly above average. They have an xG total of 13.34 so far. Only Celtic, Hearts, and Rangers have a higher xG total in the SPFL Premiership this season.

Leading the attack for Motherwell is a familiar face for Celtic supporters. Scott McDonald not only still in professional football, but has the highest xG total of all Motherwell players. While McDonald exhibits some of the same poacher characteristics that Celtic supporters first hated then loved, Louis Moult is the man that Celtic must stop if they want to come away with all 3 points on Saturday.

Moult has only appeared in 258 minutes this season so far, but has knocked in 5 goals in those limited minutes thus far. This is coming off the 15 goals he knocked in last season for Motherwell. In the 15-16 campaign, the Englishman finished the year with an xG of 11.02, which third best in the entire league.

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Moult has not let an injury stop his goal scoring form. While some dopes thought Moult might not be able to match the goal scoring form he has last season, he is already a third of the way there in less than 10% of the minutes he had last season. Jobs one and two on Saturday for the Celtic defense will be trying to stop Louis Moult.

On the other end of the field is where Mark McGhee and Motherwell face a bit more of an issue. There is a familiar face for Celtic in the Motherwell backline as well. Celtic fans are probably unsurprised that Motherwell captain Stephen McManus leads a sometimes shaky back-line.

Motherwell has an xG conceded total of 14.1, only Kilmarnock and Dundee are worse. Furthermore, Motherwell has conceded the most shots on average per match in the league.

Whoever is starting in attack for Celtic will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the net. Celtic will need to be mindful of the striker pairing of Moult and McDonald, while taking advantage of the opportunities their defense usually allow.

Mark McGhee has Motherwell mid-table and you would not expect them to be drawn into any relegation fights this season. Whether they can move beyond mid-table and if they can take points off Celtic Saturday rests on how far Louis Moult can take them and if their defense can improve.