Celtic FC: Should Dembele or Griffiths be the Starting Striker?

Celtic FC have an issue in the striker position, but it is the type of issue that most managers dream of. They have two quality strikers that seem to be vying for one spot.

Since joining Celtic FC, Brendan Rodgers has mostly avoided playing two strikers at the same time. Rodgers has employed a “front three” often, but that mostly featured a striker supported by the likes of Scott Sinclair and James Forrest on the wings.

Leigh Griffiths and Moussa Dembele mostly have yet to play very much together. Dembele replaced Griffiths after the Scotsman picked up an injury. Many in the Celtic support were worried if the young Frenchman could replace Celtic’s 40-goal scorer from last season.

Of course we know what happened next. After a slow start, a hat trick in the Glasgow Derby, two goals against Manchester City, and five goals in the SPFL in total has eased any fears about Dembele’s abilities. This has earned him a 0.87 Goals per 90 minutes.

Despite seeing his minutes limited due to injuries, Leigh Griffiths has picked up where he left off last season. In only 289 minutes, Griffiths has scored three times already. This is good for a 0.93 goals per 90 minutes. Both strikers have been knocking in the goals when they have been on.

So if Brendan Rodgers is not going to play two strikers and both are scoring goals, who should be first choice? We can look at some of the stats we have to help us with that decision.

Let us first look at expected goals. Moussa Dembele has the highest xG numbers in the SPFL Premiership, while Griffiths is 14^th. Yet, Dembele has appeared in nearly 230 more minutes. Therefore it might be better to look at xG per 90 minutes.

When we look at xG per 90, we see that Dembele is at 0.89 while Griffiths is at 0.67. This means that Dembele is likely to score more goals based on the number and location of chances he gets per game. Griffiths’ numbers are still very good, but Dembele’s are better.

Since he has only appeared in 289 minutes, we can also look at Griffiths’ numbers for last season as well. Griffiths easily had the highest number of goals and expected goals in the SPFL for 2015-2016, with an xG of over 8 higher than the next one in the league. He had a similar xG per 90 to what he has earned so far this season at 0.66, still lower than Dembele in the SPFL.

While Dembele has had a higher xG than Leigh Griffiths, there is one metric Griffiths bettered his teammate. If we do some good old-fashioned shot counting, we see this season that Griffiths is averaging 3.73 shots per 90 minutes while Dembele is averaging 3.13. Both are also averaging 1.56 shots on target per 90 minutes. Looking at Griffith’s totals from last year, we see his average of 4.94 shots and 2.76 shots on target per 90 minutes.

While we know that expected goals are a good predictor of future success, we also know that teams usually either regress or improve to the shooting percentage mean. Teams and players on the right side of the shot battle usually are on the right side of a match and the right side of a

table. If a striker produces more shots than he can be crucial for his club.

So, with Celtic having two strikers producing great stats vying for one position, what is Brendan Rodgers to do? Might I make the bold suggestion of a striker by committee?

I have one more number for you. Nine. With the Glasgow Derby with Partick Thistle rescheduled for December, Celtic has nine matches in December As Leigh Griffiths’ recent time out showed, injury or suspension might leave Celtic without one of these strikers or one might be deployed into another role.

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Celtic FC is in four competitions at this time. Between the SPFL, Scottish Cup, League Cup, and Champions League, Celtic can use as many quality players it can get. Having two strikers with an xG per 90 over 0.6 is something most teams would kill for. Celtic will have plenty of opportunities to use both.